Netanyahu’s Gamble, Trump’s Trap

Iran is setting conditions, Israel is escalating in Lebanon, and Trump is cornered between Netanyahu and Putin in a fast-moving geopolitical crisis.

Despite all the background noise in global affairs, yet another new and interesting development has emerged. It is already becoming difficult for me to choose adjectives—I do not like repeating myself.

The United States cannot wage a war against Iran. At any cost, it wants to avoid one.

Let me remind you that after Trump declared that he would wipe Iranian civilization off the face of the Earth—and I genuinely thought he was prepared to use nuclear weapons—after Iranians took to the streets waiting for death, after Trump announced that he would block the Strait of Hormuz, and yet achieved nothing, it became clear that he had no winning move in Iran. Painful negotiations then began.

In those negotiations, Iran has not backed down from its demands, which I have explained many times before. The main intermediary between Iran and Trump is Pakistan, while Pakistan is advised by China. Trump’s visit to China was a complete debacle for the United States. We know that he pleaded for help not only with Iran but also with Ukraine—to stop these wars and find a way out of a dead end.

One of Iran’s demands is a total halt to Israel’s massive wave of attacks against Lebanon. Netanyahu is attempting, quite unequivocally, to turn Lebanon into another Gaza. Iran has made it a non-negotiable condition for Trump that Israel completely cease its strikes on Lebanon. In fact, Iran’s nuclear program is currently not even the most important issue in these negotiations—Lebanon is.

Yesterday, Iran announced that it was suspending negotiations with the United States and declared that if Netanyahu does not stop in Lebanon, Iran will attack Israel.

Iran also stated that it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz to the West.

To put it simply and briefly: the world is witnessing an unprecedented situation in which SOMEONE (Iran) IS SETTING CONDITIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL.

In response to Israel’s constant aggression in Lebanon, where entire large families are reportedly being annihilated on a daily basis, Hezbollah resumed shelling Israel. This, in turn, prompted Israel to escalate once again, including at the UN Security Council, where its representative stated that Israel would continue firing at Lebanese targets because of Hezbollah, regardless of anyone else’s opinion.

Imagine Russia’s representative to the Security Council, Nebenzya, saying that Russia would reduce Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa to ashes and kill Ukrainians along with their entire families.

Iran, through Ghalibaf, announced that it was halting negotiations with the United States. This was reportedly followed by the phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, the contents of which are now public knowledge after being published by Axios. a media outlet close to Trump and likely acting at his direction.

Iran’s threats thus become much easier to understand. From this conversation between Washington and Tel Aviv, it becomes clear that the United States is cornered and dangerously close to a critical point at which it could suffer both military and geopolitical defeat.

If Iran attacks Israel and if Russia accelerates the fall of Kyiv, I will tell you what will happen.

Trump will fall immediately. The United States will enter a political crisis accompanied by unrest, and a split within the government unlike anything in its history will emerge.

Because it is becoming increasingly obvious that the United States cannot sustain a war against Iran, especially while simultaneously supporting Israel in such a conflict. The same applies to Ukraine.

In a certain sense, Trump’s political career—and perhaps even his fate—currently lies in Putin’s hands.

Since Iran is acting regardless, and Hezbollah continues striking Israel, the military-strategic decision of Putin—whether to finish off Kyiv and Zelenskyy—will determine what happens to Trump.

I would also add that a civil war already exists within the Republican Party, that the congressional elections this autumn are effectively decided, and that the turbulent processes within American domestic politics are colossal. Trump is hanging by a thread, and Netanyahu is doing everything in his power to snap it, because he is a mindless thug.

This is why we have reached the point of: “Damn it, if it weren’t for me, you would be in prison.”

On this point, Trump was not lying. Without him, Netanyahu would not have survived politically after October 7.

Trump bears responsibility for the deaths in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as in Iran and across the Gulf region.

I had long predicted a split between the two of them. Here is yet another prediction of mine that has come true.

I repeatedly said that Israel is a millstone around America’s neck. And now Trump is hanging over the abyss.

I also predicted a possible conflict between Israel and the United States. It cannot be ruled out at all. Never mind that a new congressional law merges the military systems of the two countries—if anything, that would only make Israel’s destruction easier.

Whether Trump destroys Netanyahu or Netanyahu destroys Trump remains to be seen. More importantly, both scenarios depend on what Putin decides to do.

In Israel, the Knesset is being dissolved and early elections will be held. Benjamin Netanyahu will not be allowed back into power under any circumstances. The likelihood of Likud winning the elections is zero.

Meanwhile, the economic forum begins tomorrow in St. Petersburg. People from all over the world are gathering there, and I would like to attend as well. Putin’s upcoming statement is awaited with enormous interest, especially by Russians themselves, whose patience regarding Ukraine has been completely exhausted and who want a rapid and irreversible conclusion to the conflict.

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