The Precarious Dance of Saudi-Israeli Realpolitik

Growing security alignment between Saudi Arabia and Israel points to major geopolitical shifts. However, public opinion and Palestine continue complicating this delicate act.

Recent headlines portend seismic shifts in relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, influential Middle Eastern powers aligning to counter shared threats. However, while strategic imperatives pull Riyadh and Jerusalem closer, the Palestinian question continues complicating their delicate dance.

Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proclaimed being on the “cusp of region reshaping peace with Saudi Arabia”. This followed his landmark meeting with President Biden in New York. Israel aims to formalize growing covert cooperation with the Saudis against Iran’s nuclear program and destabilizing regional activities.

Yet soon after Netanyahu’s pronouncement, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud reaffirmed the Kingdom’s commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative, stating “The Middle East conflict will not be resolved until the Palestinian people obtain their complete rights”. While shifting geopolitics propel Riyadh-Jerusalem alignment, Saudi Arabia cannot abandon the Palestinian cause and retain legitimacy at home and in the Muslim world.

This delicate balancing act reflects sharper regional realignments. Saudi Arabia and Israel share intelligence on countering Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah. And the 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE and Bahrain formalize Israel ties, had Riyadh’s tacit approval. The Saudis hope these emerging alignments isolate Iran and expand their Washington leverage.

“Israel is a potential ally against the Iranian threat,” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently told Fox News, signaling the Kingdom’s shifting priorities. Yet MBS stressed that “the Palestinian and Saudi issues are central and integral to all Muslims worldwide,” reflecting domestic sympathies.

While shared antipathy towards Iran’s “expansionist ambitions” propels Saudi-Israeli cooperation, Riyadh cannot be seen as abandoning the Palestinian struggle. The Arab Street remains committed to the Arab Peace Initiative’s exchange of Israeli recognition for Palestinian statehood. Unconditional Saudi-Israeli ties would isolate the Kingdom regionally.

Hence Netanyahu’s talk of “reshaping peace” is premature. Near-term incentives point towards deepening intelligence coordination and informal Saudi-Israeli ties. But absent serious concessions to Palestinians, public rapprochement remains unlikely. MBS must tread carefully as he tries to boost Saudi leadership credentials via selective engagement with Israel.

For now, Riyadh will continue its delicate balancing act - building covert alignment with Israel where geopolitical interests converge, while voicing measured support for Palestinian rights. Yet if incremental progress emerges on issues like maritime borders, direct Saudi-Israeli cooperation could slowly come out of the shadows.

The road to reconciliation remains long. But amidst Mideast flux, shared antipathies towards Iran’s destabilizing regional activities provide powerful glue for Saudi-Israeli realignment. The Palestinians remain the sticking point preventing full normalization. However, with deft statecraft, Riyadh and Jerusalem may gradually harmonize interests, both public and covert. The dance between geopolitics and public sympathies continues.