Sudan conflict: why is there fighting and what is at stake in the region?

The conflict has its roots in the years leading up to the 2019 uprising that ousted Bashir, during which he deliberately set his formidable security forces against each other.

Sudan's strategic location near the Red Sea, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa makes it vulnerable to regional power plays, complicating the likelihood of a successful transition to a civilian-led government. Political unrest and conflict in neighboring countries also have implications for Sudan, especially its strained relationship with Ethiopia.

Tensions escalate in Sudan with at least 180 fatalities as the military and the primary paramilitary force clash, casting uncertainty over the control of the presidential palace and Khartoum's international airport. The situation threatens the stability of Sudan and its surrounding region.

So, what's fueling the fighting?

The conflict seems to stem from a power struggle within Sudan's military regime, with the Sudanese armed forces supporting Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) backing Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti. This rivalry traces back to before the 2019 uprising that removed the dictator Omar al-Bashir from power, who had built strong security forces designed to counteract one another.

How did these military rivalries develop?

The RSF, originally the Janjaweed, was created by Bashir to suppress the Darfur rebellion over 20 years ago. In 2013, he restructured them into a semi-organized paramilitary force, granting their leaders military ranks and deploying them to quell the rebellion in South Darfur and then to fight in Yemen and Libya.

Both the RSF and the regular military forces played a part in overthrowing Bashir in 2019. The power-sharing deal, meant to facilitate a democratic transition, was disrupted by a coup in October 2021, and tensions between the two factions have been on the rise since.

When and how has everything begun?

In October 1993, Omar al-Bashir seized power in Sudan, imposing an authoritarian regime that endured until his removal in April 2019. This momentous shift triggered a chain of events that would redefine Sudan's geopolitical significance, transforming it from a pariah state to an epicenter of regional and international interest.

For nearly 30 years, Sudan remained on the United States’ list of state sponsors of terrorism, limiting its access to economic aid. The extraordinary protest movement that precipitated Bashir's ouster brought about the country's removal from this list, enabling a flood of new financial support. Simultaneously, longstanding allies like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia pledged billions of dollars to aid the post-Bashir regime.

Sudan's newfound international partnerships, which include the United States, Israel, and Russia, are grounded in its abundant natural resources, such as natural gas, gold, silver, chromite, zinc, and iron. These resources have long been a magnet for foreign investment, especially from the UAE. However, this windfall of wealth and geopolitical interest brings with it the potential for conflict.

Turkey, for instance, had sought to establish a presence on Sudan's Suakin Island by striking a $650 million deal in 2017 with the then-Bashir regime. This move raised concerns among Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt about Turkey's intentions in the Red Sea. Similarly, Sudan's $4 billion deal with Qatar to develop the Suakin port signified the Gulf state's ambitions in the Red Sea and was interpreted as a challenge to the UAE's regional influence.

Russia, however, has taken a more aggressive approach. In November 2020, President Vladimir Putin authorized the establishment of a 25-year agreement for a Russian naval base in Port Sudan. This move coincided with a military cooperation agreement signed between Moscow and Khartoum in 2019, allowing for visits by Russian warships and aircraft and facilitating the exchange of military and political information.

Sudan's strategic location, along with its valuable resources and regional stability, make it an attractive target for global powers. Russia's presence, particularly, grants it access to countries like Libya and the Horn of Africa. The UAE, on the other hand, can use its ties with Sudan to extend its commercial and geopolitical reach in the Red Sea.

Under al-Bashir's rule, Sudan acted as a conduit for weapons smuggling from Iran to Hamas in Gaza. However, Sudan's recent normalization of relations with Israel has made the revival of this route highly unlikely.

Despite the potential economic opportunities presented by Sudan's new alliances, significant challenges lie ahead. Saddled with debt and crippled by rampant inflation, Sudan has yet to fully capitalize on its vast working-age population. To unlock its true potential, the Sudanese government must address the systemic corruption that has plagued the nation and implement a comprehensive development plan.

Without such measures, Sudan's wealth of resources and newfound political ties may never translate into a better quality of life for its people, leaving the country's promise unfulfilled.