Japan at the Three-Way Junction: The Trump-Ishiba Meeting

Japan stands at a crossroads: remain a U.S. ally, join BRICS, or forge independence. As global power shifts, Prime Minister Ishiba’s decisions could redefine Japan’s role in a new world order.

Following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba became the second foreign leader to meet Donald Trump since he moved back to the White House on Jan. 20. Which speaks volumes about Washington's priorities. Under the threat of tariffs, Japan was asked to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit, buy more liquified gas from the U.S., spend more on defense, buy more U.S. weapons, invest more in U.S. companies (Nippon Steel would no longer take over U.S. Steel as planned, but instead pour money into it), be the US guard dog in the Asia-Pacific by playing a more active role in both the QUAD and SQUAD grouping, and keep kowtowing to the white master.

This assessment is accurate. However, two things should not be overlooked. First, Prime Minister Ishiba is an anomaly in Japan, and second, the Country is at a crossroads.

Ishiba is different in two ways. He has been a devout Christian since childhood and was baptized in a Protestant church at the age of 18. Christianity is not mainstream in Japan. Japan is a country of “sun worship”. You can see this from the Japanese national flag. The Japanese, who are “sun worshipers”, are basically tolerant of all religions. Many Japanese people get married in Christian churches, but when they die, they usually end up in the care of Buddhism. And Shinto, the traditional Japanese religion, is a form of “sun worship”.

There are not many Christians in Japan, and Prime Minister Ishiba is different in this respect. Although the reputation of Christians among the Japanese is high, few people become believers. In general, Christians are thought to be serious and devout people. Prime Minister Ishiba is a very serious bookworm.

Another characteristic of Prime Minister Ishiba is that he is the last disciple of former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka. Tanaka Kakuei is famous for refusing to be the watchdog of the United States and for concluding a peace and friendship treaty with China before President Nixon. Prime Minister Ishiba is also in a position to refuse to be the watchdog of the United States. Prime Minister Ishiba is more like a wild dog than a watchdog. For example, like Tanaka Kakuei, he has been taking a position that the Japan-US Security Treaty is an unequal treaty and that it should be improved even before becoming Prime Minister.

If free-spirited President Trump and the independent-minded Prime Minister Ishiba become close, naturally the subject of revising the Japan-US Security Treaty will come up.

President Trump visited Japan as a state guest. On the plane on the way back, he said,

“Japan is a rich country and can protect itself. Why are there US military bases in Japan? They're not necessary.”

This is the testimony of Douglas McGregor, a former army colonel and presidential aide, posted on YouTube.

Therefore, if the Trump administration were to remove the nearly 800 US military bases around the world, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a member of the Trump administration, has argued, then Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba would be the first to jump on board.

The world is at a crossroads right now, and the same is true in Japan. However, in Japan's case, the crossroads are actually “three-forks”.

For the past 500 years, the Anglo-Saxons have dominated the world. But now, rival powers such as China and Russia have emerged. At the center of this are the BRICS countries. In the Japanese mass media, there is not much coverage of the BRICS. This is because Japanese TV and newspaper reports are simply copies of Western media reports.

Many Japanese intellectuals think that the BRICS will eventually split up. They believe that the countries' national interests are too different for them to remain united for long. However, I think that the BRICS' unity will only grow stronger. This is because they are clearly united in their aim to end the Anglo-Saxon world hegemony.

The world is divided into two camps: the Western countries and the BRICS countries plus the Global South, but Japan has three options.

One option is to continue to act as the watchdog for the white masters of the United States. However, this would be a path to self-destruction. Japan would decline along with the declining United States.

The second is to become a member of the BRICS countries. However, this will be opposed by the United States, which regards Japan as a vassal state, so it will be some time before this becomes a reality.

The third option is to become a “hedgehog nation”. This means removing US military bases from Japan and developing its own defense capabilities. Japan would then be able to watch the power struggles between the BRICS countries and Western countries. Japan is a small country with no natural resources, and its only assets are its people. Having experienced the tragedy of the Kamikaze suicide squads in World War II, the Japanese are extremely averse to war. As a result, the number of people who become soldiers is decreasing, just like in the United States. Furthermore, the population is in the midst of a sharp decline. Due to a lack of manpower, it is not possible to allocate people to things like the military. In other words, a peaceful nation is Japan's ideal.

The free-spirited President Trump and the untamed Prime Minister Ishiba seem to get along well. Therefore, the meeting this time was the first step for Japan to choose the third way.