Diplomatic Strain in Latin America: Lula, Maduro, and Ortega's Conflict

Lula, Maduro, and Ortega face off over Venezuela’s election, straining diplomatic ties ahead of key BRICS discussions. Can they mediate their positions?

Diplomatic tension has risen among Latin American nations after the Venezuelan national elections, president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, heavily criticized Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Brazilian government's stance on the results of the elections, justifying breaking ties with the country.

"In this presidency, you wish to convert yourself into a Yankee representative in Latin America, that's why we broke ties with Brazil," Ortega said about Lula in a speech at the extraordinary summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of America. "How Lula behaved in the face of the legitimate Venezuelan president's victory is shameful, repeating the slogans of Yankees, Europeans, and other influenced governments in Latin America".

Ortega's speech also targeted Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, who, together with Lula, called for the publication of the electoral records from the Venezuelan presidential election. Ortega mocked the situation, claiming that Petro was competing with Lula to see who would represent the interests of the United States in Latin America.

On the 24th of August, the governments of Brazil and Colombia issued new statements, reiterating their request for the publication of the disaggregated election results and advocating for peaceful dialogue in the country. Experts considered this position a "retreat" from earlier declarations that suggested holding new elections in Venezuela, an idea widely rejected by the Venezuelan government and the opposition.

Despite the pressure, Lula and Petro maintained their opposition to the unilateral sanctions imposed on Venezuela, condemning them as violations of international law that disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations. Venezuela faces over 930 sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and Canada, which severely impact its economy, particularly the oil sector.

Such convos involving said Latin American leaders must be pondered amid the discussions of including more countries of the region in the BRICS+. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro received an official invitation to attend the BRICS summit in October, to be held in Kazan, Russia. Government officials have stated that the country has demonstrated interest in joining the group since 2023.

Brazil has also nominated the Republic of Colombia to be one of the Latin American countries to access the BRICS+ platform; the Brazilian office's recent statements might produce an awkward outcome regarding the topics to be treated at the 2024 BRICS summit, such as the participation of President Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela's possible accession to the group.

According to Gilberto Maringoni, a professor of International Relations at UFABC, the refusal to recognize Maduro's election by Brazil and Colombia puts Brazil in a delicate position. While it is a politically rigid measure, it remains somewhat flexible but could cause problems in the future. Eventually, it could lead to the withdrawal of ambassadors and even a diplomatic rupture, a scenario that, according to the expert, would be disastrous for regional integration and the coherence of Brazil’s international positions.

We recognize that we may appear naive, but we are hopeful that the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan will provide an opportunity for the presidents of these three important Latin American nations to mediate their positions and find a solution that lowers the tone of confrontation. This would enable the entire BRICS group to work constructively toward a common multipolar future.